@MastersThesis{Souza:2021:TeObEv,
author = "Souza, Pedro Henrique Melo de",
title = "Tend{\^e}ncias observadas de eventos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
intensa na regi{\~a}o metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro e
{\'a}reas adjacentes",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2021",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2021-01-25",
keywords = "tend{\^e}ncia, precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensa, Rio de Janeiro,
Mann-Kendall, EOF, desastres naturais, tendency, intense
precipitation, natural disasters.",
abstract = "A regi{\~a}o Sudeste do Brasil {\'e} a regi{\~a}o brasileira
que concentra a maior parte da popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o e a que
movimenta a maior parte da economia do pa{\'{\i}}s. Mas, como em
todo o Brasil, carece de infraestrutura adequada para
preven{\c{c}}{\~a}o de eventos meteorol{\'o}gicos extremos que
interferem na din{\^a}mica da sociedade e da economia. Os eventos
de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensa s{\~a}o caracterizados por
apresentarem elevados acumulados de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o em um
curto per{\'{\i}}odo. O presente trabalho visa estudar a
tend{\^e}ncia de eventos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensa na
Regi{\~a}o Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro e nas cidades
adjacentes, no per{\'{\i}}odo chuvoso da regi{\~a}o definido
entre outubro e abril, sendo considerada para o estudo a
s{\'e}rie compreendida entre outubro de 1985 e abril de 2019.
Para tanto, foram considerados como eventos de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensa os dias em que a
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o foi superior ao percentil de 95%. Para
an{\'a}lise estat{\'{\i}}stica de tend{\^e}ncia da s{\'e}rie
temporal foi utilizado o teste de Mann-Kendall. Para an{\'a}lise
da intensidade e frequ{\^e}ncia dos eventos de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensa, foram adotados quatro
{\'{\i}}ndices de extremos (R30mm, Rx1day, Rx5day e CWD). Na
an{\'a}lise de tend{\^e}ncia de eventos, n{\~a}o se observou
uma tend{\^e}ncia estatisticamente significativa, enquanto na
an{\'a}lise dos {\'{\i}}ndices de extremos, foram observados
aumentos nos valores de m{\'a}xima precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
di{\'a}ria, na m{\'a}xima precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o em 5 dias
consecutivos e diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o no n{\'u}mero de dias com
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Na segunda parte do estudo, procurou-se
identificar os padr{\~o}es atmosf{\'e}ricos m{\'e}dios
associados ao per{\'{\i}}odo chuvoso da regi{\~a}o e os
padr{\~o}es m{\'e}dios associados aos dias com
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o superior ao percentil de 95%,
atrav{\'e}s da an{\'a}lise de fun{\c{c}}{\~o}es ortogonais
emp{\'{\i}}ricas (EOF). Foram analisadas as tr{\^e}s primeiras
componentes principais de seis campos atmosf{\'e}ricos. Tr{\^e}s
estudos de caso foram realizados para identificar os sistemas
atuantes e relacionar os eventos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
intensa com os desastres naturais provocados por eles. Por fim,
procurou-se fazer uma breve an{\'a}lise das
implica{\c{c}}{\~o}es dos eventos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
intensa na sociedade. ABSTRACT: The Southeastern region of Brazil
is the Brazilian region that concentrates most of the population
and that which moves most of the economy of the country. But, as
in all of Brazil, it lacks adequate infrastructure to prevent
extreme weather events that interfere with the dynamics of society
and the economy. The events of intense precipitation are
characterized by their high accumulation of exclusion in a short
period. The present work aims to study the trend of events of
intense precipitation in the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro
and in the adjacent areas, in the rainy period of the region
defined between October and April, being considered for the study
the series between October 1985 and April 2019. For this purpose,
the days on which the precipitation was higher than the 95%
percentile were considered as events of intense precipitation.
Mann-Kendall test was used for statistical analysis of the time
series trend. For the analysis of the intensity and quantity of
the events of intense precipitation, four extremes indexes were
adopted (R30mm, Rx1day, Rx5day and CWD). In the trend analysis of
events, there was no statistically significant trend, while in the
analysis of the extreme indices, there were increases in the
values of maximum daily precipitation, maximum precipitation in 5
consecutive days and decrease in the number of days with
precipitation. In the second part of the study, we tried to
identify the average atmospheric patterns associated with the
rainy season in the region and the average patterns associated
with days with precipitation above the 95% percentile, through the
analysis of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The first three
main components of six atmospheric fields were analyzed. Three
case studies were carried out to identify the active systems and
relate the events of intense precipitation to the natural
disasters caused by them. Finally, an attempt was made to make a
brief analysis of the implications of the events of intense
precipitation in society.",
committee = "Chan, Chou Sin (Presidente) and Orsini, Jose Antonio Marengo
(orientador) and Dereczynski, Claudine",
englishtitle = "Observed trends of intense precipitation events in the
metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro and adjacent areas.",
language = "pt",
pages = "92",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/449LQQH",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/449LQQH",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}